Climate change could trigger up to a 3% loss in Morocco’s GDP by 2050, new study finds

MOROCCO – Climate change could trigger up to a 3% loss in GDP by 2050, hindering Morocco’s economic growth prospects, a new study from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found.

The estimates are part of a comprehensive review of climate change-related research released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) last in February 2022.

A 1°C rise in global temperatures will cost Mediterranean countries an average of 1.1 point reduction in Gross Domestic Production (GDP), predicts the report.

Additionally, the range of land suitable for growing argan trees is likely to shrink by up to 32% by 2050, threatening livelihoods and Morocco’s bio-diversity.

Based on thousands of research papers, the IPCC report also argues that socio-economic sectors in Morocco and  within all Mediterranean countries are vulnerable to climate change.

Regarding water resources, the report explains that Morocco’s Middle Draa valley will experience increasingly severe droughts, resulting in a future lack of water supply in the North African country.

The whole northern Africa area is also predicted to experience a 5-40% reduction in surface water resources between 2030-2065.

The rate of water scarcity will especially increase in Morocco and Tunisia, as the two countries are projected to witness a 10-63% decrease in surface water resources by 2050, indicates the report.

As global warming levels increase to a 1.5°C-2°C range, droughts’ severity and frequency will drastically increase, constraining the North African countries’ capacity to use river flows in hydropower plants.

Under a 1.5°C-2°C global warming range, energy production from hydropower plants will go down by as much as 33%-60% should global warming exceed 3%, details the report.

Launched in 1990, the IPCC reports aim to sound the alarm on the ecological and socio-economic repercussions of climate change.

This year’s report failed to garner as much attention as the previous ones, according to international observers, partly because of the Ukraine conflict’s mayhem.

In addition, people see the consequences of climate change in everyday news rather than grim scientific future predictions.

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